Global M&A rebounds sharply as 2025 deal value climbs to US$4.8t

Average EV/EBITDA multiples rose to 11.6 times, up one turn from 2024 but still below 2021 peaks. 

Global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) rebounded sharply in 2025, with total deal value projected to reach US$4.8t, up 36% from the previous year and the second-highest level on record, according to Bain & Company’s upcoming 2026 Global M&A Report.

The number of deals rose 5%, with large transactions driving most of the increase in value.

Bain said megadeals worth US$5b or more accounted for three-quarters of strategic deal-value growth, and about 60% of these were led by infrequent acquirers.

Roughly 40% were classified as transformative transactions, where the deal size exceeded half of the acquirer’s market capitalisation.

Technology and advanced manufacturing were the standout sectors. Tech M&A surged 76% to US$478b, with about half of all strategic technology deals above US$500m involving AI-native or AI-driven businesses. Advanced manufacturing deals rose 38% to US$717b.

By geography, the United States remained the dominant target market, accounting for about half of total strategic deal value. Greater China led in deal count, with domestic transactions making up more than 80% of its total.

Japan’s deal value roughly doubled, making it the world’s third-largest M&A market, whilst in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, overall value increased despite a 7% drop in deal numbers.

M&A activity rose across investor types. Strategic acquirers saw deal value up 38%, financial sponsors 31%, and venture capital 28%.

Bain attributed the global rebound to easing regulatory conditions, lower capital costs, and a narrower valuation gap between buyers and sellers.

Average EV/EBITDA multiples rose to 11.6 times, up one turn from 2024 but still below 2021 peaks. The firm said AI disruption was a major catalyst for boardroom action.

Trade restrictions and tariffs had a limited effect on dealmaking. Cross-border activity remained steady, with fewer than half of surveyed executives saying trade measures altered their M&A plans. About 70% said divestiture decisions were unaffected.

Despite the recovery, Bain noted that M&A spending made up just 7% of total cash outlays among roughly 700 S&P World Index companies — a 10-year low — as firms directed more capital toward AI, automation, factory expansion, and energy projects.

AI is also reshaping dealmaking itself. Bain found that three-quarters of strategic acquirers now evaluate AI’s impact on potential targets, with at least one in five deals abandoned due to AI-related risks.

Nearly half of practitioners reported using AI tools across multiple stages of the M&A process, from sourcing through integration planning.

The report also found that scope deals — aimed at entering new markets or acquiring new capabilities — accounted for 60% of all transactions above US$1b, the highest proportion ever recorded, as companies focused on revenue growth over scale.