Hong Kong exports likely to grow 15% in 2021

The HKTDC reported export confidence rose for the 5th consecutive quarter.

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) revised up its export forecast to 15% from 5% previously.

The export index rose for the fifth consecutive quarter to 48.7 in the second quarter of 2021, from a record low of 16 in the beginning of the pandemic.

 HKTDC Director of Research Nicholas Kwan linked this to the global revival in trade as well as the resumption of production activities.

Total exports in the first quarter increased by 33.2$ year-on-year to $1.10t with growth of 24.4% registered in April.

 "Led by Mainland China and the United States, the global economy has rebounded steadily, which will continue to bolster Hong Kong's export performance," Kwan said.

Despite, concerns amongst local exporters persist, based on HKTDC’s export index survey.

These concerns include the COVID-19 pandemic (41.5%), softening global demand (16.7%), prolonged trade tensions between the mainland and the United States (13.0%) and continuing pandemic-mandated border closures (11.6%).

"The global economic recovery is likely to be highly uneven. After taking into account a basket of factors, we decided to revise Hong Kong's export forecast in 2021 upward from 5% to 15%, albeit from a low base,” Kwan also said.

“This represents the biggest rebound since the city's recovery from the global financial crisis in 2010."