Insured losses hold at $47b despite lower disaster costs

Economic losses dropped to their lowest first-half level since 2018.

Natural disasters caused an estimated $111b in economic losses worldwide during the first half of 2026, whilst Asia-Pacific remained relatively subdued with well-below-average economic losses.

The global figure was 25% below the 21st-century average of $149b and the lowest recorded for the first half of a year since 2018, according to Aon's "Global Catastrophe Recap: First Half of 2026" report.

There were 23 disasters that caused at least $1b in economic losses, matching the long-term average.

The Indian subcontinent is highly exposed to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related weather changes. Around 70% of India's annual rainfall comes from the southwest monsoon, making the country particularly vulnerable. 

The India Meteorological Department forecast the June to September monsoon at 90% of the long-term average, with an 84% chance of below-normal or deficient rainfall.

Rainfall in June 2026 was reported to be 32% below normal nationally and 91% below normal in the northwest. 

Although El Niño is expected to reduce summer rainfall, it could also increase extreme daily rainfall, raising the risk of hazardous conditions across central and western peninsular regions.

ENSO also has a major influence on insurance losses in Australia. Research found it is the main climate pattern affecting rainfall across eastern Australia, accounting for more than one-quarter of rainfall variability during spring. Its effects are stronger during La Niña than El Niño. 

El Niño events are around 2.6 times more likely to create drier conditions, reducing spring rainfall by as much as 20 mm compared with neutral years.

The US recorded the largest share of global losses, driven mainly by repeated severe storms and winter weather events.

The most expensive individual disaster was a pair of earthquakes that struck Venezuela on 24 June. 

The event caused an estimated $20b to $30b in economic losses and killed more than 4,800 people, according to preliminary figures.

Global insured losses reached an estimated $47b during the period, broadly in line with the long-term average of $46b. There were at least 13 events that caused insured losses of at least $1b.

The US accounted for approximately $36b, or 77%, of global insured losses. The figure was 26% above the country's long-term average for the period.

At least 16,200 people died in natural disasters globally during the first half of 2026, 56% below the 21st-century average of 36,200 for the same period. Most of the deaths were linked to the European heatwave in June and the earthquakes in Venezuela.

The late-June heatwave saw at least 15 European countries exceed their previous all-time June temperature records. Temperatures in several countries rose above 40°C.

More than 8,300 deaths were attributed to the heatwave in Europe, although the figure is expected to change as further assessments are made. 

Aon said heatwaves are the leading weather- and climate-related threat to human life in Europe.