Japan’s perovskite targets face cost and durability gaps: IEEFA

Perovskite cells currently have lifetimes of 5–12 years.

Japan’s government has set targets for perovskite solar cells of 1 gigawatt (GW) domestic production capacity by 2030 and 20GWs by 2040, alongside a levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of JPY10–14/kWh. 

The industry projections place costs significantly higher, raising questions about feasibility, a new briefing note from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) highlighted.

Perovskite cells currently have lifetimes of 5–12 years, compared with 25 years for conventional silicon panels. Leading Japanese manufacturers forecast LCOEs of JPY15.3/kWh by 2040, versus government targets of JPY10–14/kWh. Conventional residential PV is projected at JPY7.6–10.4/kWh and utility‑scale PV at JPY6.6–8.4/kWh, underscoring the competitiveness gap.

Between FY2022 and FY2024, Japan allocated $364.5m (JPY54.8b) in subsidies for next‑generation renewables, including perovskites. Over the next decade, the government plans to spend $6.65b (JPY1t) to catalyse $206b (JPY31t) in public‑private investment. Despite this scale of support, Japan does not yet mass‑produce perovskite cells, with new production lines only expected later this decade.

IEEFA notes that even if Japan achieves its 20GW perovskite installation target by 2040, the technology would account for only around 10% of projected solar capacity of 200–250GW. The briefing argues perovskites should be positioned as niche solutions, deployed where silicon PV cannot be installed, such as lightweight roofs or building walls. Tandem perovskite‑silicon cells, which combine layers to capture different parts of the solar spectrum, are identified as a more viable pathway to enhance efficiency.

The IEEFA report concludes that Japan’s energy strategy should prioritise mature, cost‑competitive technologies such as silicon PV, with perovskites serving as supplemental rather than central to national deployment plans.

1 JPY = 0.0064 USD