China oil shift hits tankers as tonne miles growth capped at 3.2%

China’s imports from the US declined 61% YoY in 2025, whilst imports from Canada climbed 313%.

Stockpiling increased in 2025 as China’s total import of crude oil rose by 4.9% year-on-year (YoY) in 2025 to 11.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) during the period, a BIMCO analysis found.

This also caused seaborne imports to increase at an estimated 4% YoY, said Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, in a statement.

“According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), China’s stockpiles rose slightly less than 1 mbpd, indicating that the underlying import demand fell nearly 0.5 mbpd,” Rasmussen added.

BIMCO said that the crude tanker market is highly dependent on China’s crude oil imports, as they drive slightly more than one-fifth of crude tanker volumes and about 30% of tonne miles.

Chinese volumes are particularly important for trades from the Persian Gulf, Brazil, and Russia, it added. On a YoY basis, changes in the sourcing of Chinese imports have shortened sailing distances by almost 1% and limited tonne miles growth to 3.2%.

China’s imports from the US declined 61% YoY in 2025, whilst imports from Canada climbed 313%, the firm’s analyst said.

The decrease in volumes from the US started in February as China increased tariffs on US crude oil and volumes have not recovered since, the firm said.

Canadian volumes rose as the expansion of the Transmountain Pipeline increased volumes flowing into Vancouver, it added, and talks between China and Canada and ambitions to increase Canada’s export to China by 50% by 2030 could further increase crude oil volumes.

Along with exports from Brazil, Canadian volumes were the key drivers of Chinese import growth, whilst exports from the US and Russia recorded the largest losses. Imports from Russia were 11% of Chinese seaborne supply and further US sanctions do not appear to have impacted volumes so far. 

Despite the support from stockpiling, seaborne volumes to China grew less than 1% YoY in the first half of 2025 as the first quarter imports fell, BIMCO said.  

“In fact, fourth quarter volumes accounted for 56% of total import growth and nearly 80% of seaborne import growth. The fourth quarter increase coincided with a larger oil market surplus and the average price for Brent crude falling below $65/barrel,” it added.