China and India lead coal production expansion globally

Beijing leads with 1,350 million tonnes per annum of proposed capacity.

The decline in coal production capacity at newly operating mines in 2024 could be short-lived as developers in 30 countries, led by China and India, set out plans to expand production.

According to Global Energy Monitor (GEM), over 850 new mines, expansions, and recommission projects are set to be rolled out in 30 countries. Thirty-five mine extension projects are also under consideration.

Nearly 90% of this proposed capacity is located within just a few countries, with China accounting for 1,350 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) mostly located in its north and northwest. India follows with 329 Mtpa, nearly half of which is being developed by state-owned Coal India.

“In total, 2,270 Mtpa of coal mine capacity is under development worldwide, posing a significant risk of increased methane emissions, a potent greenhouse gas with over 80 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period,” GEM said.

The organisation estimates that 15.7 Mt of methane could be released annually if all proposed coal mining projects are developed, surpassing the total annual greenhouse gas emissions of Japan, one of the world’s top ten emitters.

“The canary is literally and figuratively in the coal mine. Without drastically scaling back plans for new mine capacity, the world could see a massive rise in potent methane emissions that would make it all but impossible to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement,” said Dorothy Mei, project manager of the Global Coal Mine Tracker at Global Energy Monitor.