China’s power demand to rise 4-5% annually on data centres and EV growth

S&P sees new industries overtaking heavy sectors through 2030.

China’s electricity demand is set to grow by 4–5% annually through 2030, driven by data centres, electric vehicles (EVs), and advanced manufacturing, S&P Global Ratings said in an October report.

S&P estimated that power use could rise by 2,500 terawatt-hours (TWh) during the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), roughly equivalent to the European Union’s annual electricity demand.

The report said tighter carbon controls and the closure of outdated industrial capacity will align power growth more closely with GDP. “Electricity demand will shift toward technology and service-oriented industries,” said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Scott Chui.

Renewable energy is expected to supply up to 80% of additional demand, with large state-owned power producers leading new investment.

Coal will remain a baseload source but serve mainly as a flexible backup for renewables. S&P expects carbon emissions from the power sector to peak before 2030.