Asia’s business insolvencies to rise by 3% in 2024 

If excluding China, it could rise by 8%.

Allianz Trade expects global business insolvencies to increase by 11% in 2024, following a 7% rise in 2023. 

Regionally, insolvencies in Asia are expected to rise by 3%, or 8% excluding China. Conversely, a few countries such as India, Taiwan, South Africa, and Turkey will experience declines, with Turkey seeing the sharpest drop at 43%. 

These exceptions, however, represent a small share of global GDP and will have a limited impact on the overall insolvency trend.

North America is expected to see the highest increase in insolvencies in 2024 at 32% year-over-year, followed by Western Europe at 14%, Latin America at 11%, and Central and Eastern Europe at 8%. 

The global increase is driven by a broad-based surge across geographies and sectors, with two-thirds of countries projected to surpass pre-pandemic insolvency levels, particularly in the UK and France. 

The Global Insolvency Index is expected to end 2024 between 10% and 15% above the 2016-2019 average but remain 11% below the levels seen during the Great Financial Crisis. 

This surge is partly due to a backlog of insolvencies from companies that were previously protected by pandemic and energy crisis support measures.

Construction, retail, and services sectors have seen the largest increases in insolvencies, with large businesses (those with over $54.46m [EUR50m] in turnover) reaching record-high bankruptcy levels in Q2 2024, particularly in Western Europe.

Looking ahead, insolvencies are expected to rise by another 2% in 2025 due to slow growth, persistent geopolitical tensions, and delayed easing of financing conditions.